Home values could take decades to recover
Filed under: Debt, Mortgage Confidential
If you bought near the top of the housing bubble between 2005 and 2006, you could wait decades for the prices to reach that level again, according to a report in USA Today. People who must move for a new job or family crisis find they either have to come up with cash for closing (if they find a willing buyer) or they must walk away from the loan and give the house back to the bank either through foreclosure or through a deed-in-lieu of foreclosure.The housing bubble that started to inflate in 2002 and burst in 2007 drove housing prices way out of the normal range. The normal ranges for housing prices track these measures:
* Income - The house price should not exceed three times your average household income, which was true from 1950 to 2000. In 2006 the average household income was $66,600, so the average home price should have been about $200,000. But during that year the average home price was about $300,000.
* Rent - Traditionally homes sold for about 20 times what it would cost to rent the home. In 2006 that number jumped to 32 times. Until prices fall back to the 20 times number we won't see stabilization of home prices.
* Appreciation - Between 1950 and 2000, the normal increase in home value was less than 0,5% per year after adjusting for inflation. From 2000 to 2006, home prices rose at an average annualized rate of 8.2% above inflation and peaked at a 12.3% jump in 2005. Housing prices began to fall in 2006.Unfortunately for those who bought near the peak of the bubble, they may never recover their loss. Bubbles drive prices to a point that cannot be matched. This bubble was inflated by easy money terms for mortgages through optional payment mortgages (where people could pay even less than the interest owed and continue to add to the principal of the loan), no verification of income (these liar loans allowed many to qualify for a home even though they couldn't truly afford it), and tiny down payments (in 2007 downpayments of 0% were allowed through some of the riskier loan options on the market).
Once the bubble burst those shaky loans started to collapse, which began the flood of foreclosures. This scenario should not have been a surprise to anyone. It's exactly what happened before the Great Depression. While the type of loans were a different structure, shaky loans with low down payments that encouraged people to buy what they could not afford drove the prices up then too.
The New Deal came to the rescue. The government took control of millions of loans and restructured them. That plan isn't much different than options being considered today. Without a rescue, foreclosures will mount driving house prices down further and pushing even more people into underwater mortgages that they end up walking away from. Just last week, Credit Suisse predicted that by 2012 16% of U.S. homes would be in foreclosure - that's about 8 million. Hopefully the government will prevent this downward spiral that is now threatening folks who put down 20% or more using fixed rate loans and are stilling getting caught up in this perfect storm.
Lita Epstein has written more than 25 books including the "Complete Idiot's Guide to Improving Your Credit Score" and "The 250 Questions You Should Ask to Avoid Foreclosure."



Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
12-12-2008 @ 6:50PM
BELLCORD said...
WHEN THE OIL BOOM OF THE LATE 80'S TURNED TO BUST IN TEXAS IT TOOK A BIT OVER A DECADE TO SEE MUCH APPRECIATION IN HOME VALUES. THIS WOULD HAVE BEEN MUCH WORSE BUT THE NOW PUT UPON FANNIE MAE REFUSED TO 'REDLINE' TEXAS AND OTHER OIL PATCH STATES AS THE BIG BANKS HAD. IF YOU COULD FIND A BUYER FANNIE OR FHA WOULD GUARANTEE THE LOAN WHICH STAVED OFF TOTAL COLLASPE..
Reply
12-16-2008 @ 3:20PM
Devang Shah said...
Ms. Epstein, could you please include some statistics, if available to you, in terms of how many total homeowners, how many under water, how many foreclosed so far, how many facing foreclosure (late in their payments, served foreclosure notice) and create some type of score card that you keep on top right hand corner of your blog ? Perhaps a separate page that is updated regularly, say once a month ? Just to get a clearer picture of the issue.
Reply
12-16-2008 @ 3:22PM
Lita Epstein said...
Devang Shah,
RealtyTrac does an excellent job of keeping those numbers:
http://www.realtytrac.com/ContentManagement/PressRelease.aspx
Lita
Reply
1-14-2009 @ 3:28AM
Gray Owl said...
No one seems to be angry at OPEC even though most of OPEC hates our guts. No one seems to be angry at the Democrat party even though Fannie and Freddie were their pet pig projects. No one is angry at the home buyers who still have jobs but want to step away from the bad deals they made. No one is angry at a Federal Government who will soon have our national debt to 2 trillion dollars. Nope, we are mad at conservatives who have tried to stop these regressive practices but failed because socialists feel that access to credit and home ownership are rights. Our nation is not going to survive if we don't develop a sense of nationalism and adopt a sense of fairness based on merit. The housing problem was just the cork on the bottle.
Reply
1-22-2009 @ 7:32PM
doug said...
amen , it is nice to read comments from somene that is informed
1-16-2009 @ 12:18PM
denny lake said...
Who are you? And why is an amateur allowed to give this advice when you obviously know NOTHING about the modification business. If someone has a rate and payment they simply can not afford because of their current circumstance, they can try and contact their lender themselves to get a modification or some help. But only one in 20 borrowers who try to deal with the lender themselves get any kind of modification completed. For example,Countrywide receives over 1000 modification requests a day. If you somehow miraculously get through the system and get to someone you are transferred to India--you then give your financial information to them over the phone, and they run it through an automated engine---if you don't fit into their tiny box, you are denied, And one more thing Einstein, Countrywide will not modify ANYONE who is not currently delinquent.
I work for a modification processing company that has successfully completed over 1000 modifications with all major lenders. We have a success rate of 85% on cases we choose to accept. If you EVER want to try and give advice on this subject again, I would suggest you contact me and LEARN what this is about, instead of giving horrible advice--I can not believe that AOL allows you to do this
Reply
2-05-2009 @ 11:17AM
Darlene said...
Where can we get the help you are talking about? Thank you
2-13-2009 @ 9:07AM
len said...
Denny,
Please provide your contact information.
Thank You