Home prices likely to rise soon --- in some markets. Is yours included?
If you're thinking about buying a home, consider ignoring all those scary warnings about prices declining further. Like Chicken Little, chances are the housing sky isn't going to fall.
There's plenty of evidence, most of it being ignored, that in all but a few parts of the country where there was a lot of speculative buying, prices have already stabilized.
Deep in the easily overlooked bowels of the New York Times this week was a report from a team of economists from Columbia University and the Center for Real Estate at Wichita State University in Kansas that pooh-poohed the notion that prices are going to collapse. Using a financial model constructed from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise price index, foreclosures, home sales, building permits and employment figures, the economic team concluded that any declines in house prices are highly likely to remain small.
And last month, PMI Mortgage Insurance Co. ranked the nation's 50 largest metro areas according to the likelihood that home prices will decline further in the next two years. Except for Las Vegas and Phoenix, the top 14 metropolitan areas for which the risk of greater declines was greater than 50 percent are all in California and Florida – where speculators went crazy. The remaining 36 areas mostly have single digit percentage risks –
a much less scary proposition. The full list is available here.
In fact, if you live in the heartland, there's lots of reason to think home prices will soon rise. PMI identifies these 14 areas as having a less than 1 percent chance that prices will decline further. The real estate market never stays still. If prices aren't going down, then they must be going up.
1. Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis; WI
2. Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor; OH
3. Austin-Round Rock; TX
4. Denver-Aurora; CO
5. Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord; NC-SC
6. Kansas City; MO-KS
7. Columbus; OH
8. Cincinnati-Middletown; OH-KY-IN
9. Indianapolis-Carmel; IN
10. San Antonio; TX
11. Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown; TX
12. Pittsburgh; PA
13. Dallas-Plano-Irving; TX
14. Fort Worth-Arlington; TX
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
8-06-2008 @ 9:15PM
dan said...
wa wa wa
Reply
8-06-2008 @ 9:18PM
len said...
your an idiot or a complete liar wait no your a realestate agent figures anyone telling people to buy a home prices are going up is an well you know what iam thinking people dont by a dam thing unless you are paying 10 -20 % off asking price banks and agents the con is over you cant rippoff the american people any more home prices are still not right and are dropping from that huge bubble that scandalous agents and lenders created for us bastards, now these idiots buy now the sky isint falling o yea tell that to the american people in line for food buddy look if you are buying a home right now you are in control putt in the low low low offer tell the bank they have 7 days to respond and go on to the next one make your agent work and find you agreat deal in this market nightmare ,banks are still trying to ripp you off with the help of some agents you know who you are scumbags so the game is over now the american home buyer is driving so sit back and enjoy the ride you have the buying power use it get a good deal dont listen to your agent insist on 10 -20% of market value current market value not last years wise guy be carefull and godbless america
Reply
8-06-2008 @ 9:47PM
shamrock said...
same as dan....wa wa wa
8-06-2008 @ 10:03PM
Ronald Kosanovich said...
Housing prices have been too high for decades, and the entire fault falls with Real Estate agents and local taxes. Anyone that owns a 200k home is a financial fool, and I can easily prove that with 5th grade math. Follow this easy flowchart:
Forget about any loans or mortgages, as they increase the home price from two to three times the original purchase price, and assume that they buy it for cash. If you own a 200k home then you lose at least 10k in interest per year at 5% interest rates, and a lot more if you have better investments. Now add the taxes, insurance and maintenance and you'll quickly see that the home is an endless money pit. That home will cost that owner at least 16k to 18k per year to own, and he has almost no chance to ever recoup his loses. Now look at the fool with more money than brains that owns a 1 million dollar home. That home will cost that financial fool at least 100k in lost interest and costs per year to own.
Now here's the real kicker: Most people believe, and are told by Real Estate agents, that they make a profit when they sell their home. The only way that a homeowner will realize any profit is if he/she is willing to move WAY down in quality and/or area. They'll pay the same or more if they move up, latterly or even want to buy back their original home. So much for the phony profit that the government and Real Estate agents promote that doesn't exist. The government doesn’t have the gall to charge these homeowners a capital gains tax on top of all their real loses. All you do as a homeowner is pay more in property tax. They make a fool out of almost all homeowners, and even the rich are dumber than most, because they can lease three or four properties for what they pay for that one huge money pit. There are very little write-offs when you own, and they really only count with a mortgage, and again you have to spend 75 cents to save 25 cents, and that’s not good math to any 5th grader. Get these college professors to answer these simple math questions, and if they can’t, then get any 5th grader to answer if for them !
Reply
8-06-2008 @ 10:21PM
jimmy jack said...
Wonderful! Lets all jump in and make lots of money on the new bubble.
Reply
8-06-2008 @ 10:35PM
John said...
The "economists" need to spend a few days in some of the hard hit markets to experience what is really going on. 50% or greater chance in Vegas??? Try 99.99999%. Just goes to show you that a college education doesn't teach common sense.
Reply
8-06-2008 @ 11:08PM
Deela said...
lol! We haven't even seen the worse yet. What an irresponsible article. This is exactly the kind of crap that is getting America in trouble...these lies.
Reply
8-07-2008 @ 3:30AM
albert j. Reine said...
America do not worry: President Obama will save you ! You will be taxed so much, you will wish you never voted for this man with no substance, If you sell your home he will tax you over 28%, Good by AMERICA, and Good by to the American Dream !
Reply